The killing of 24 Pakistan troops by NATO forces is just the latest disastrous chapter in U.S. Pakistan relations. As affairs go from bad to catastrophic, it’s not just the Taliban who will benefit, but also China.
For several years now the Pakistanis have found China a very
willing and increasingly powerful counterweight to the Americans and their
often strident—you could call it arrogant--political demands.
Toeing Washington’s line, in other words, is no longer the
only game in town. And the pragmatic Chinese, as always, seem willing to work
with whomever holds power.
Take for instance, the
outrage in both the U.S. and Pakistan after American troops secretly entered
Pakistan last May 2, to kill Osama Bin Laden. The day after the killing, as
Americans officials in Washington intimated that top duplicitous Pakistani military
had been harboring the Al Qaeda leader, and fulminating U.S. congressmen were demanding
immediate cuts in aid, a foreign ministry spokesperson in Beijing lept to
Pakistan’s defense. He declared
that "The Pakistani government is
firm in resolve and strong in action when it comes to counterterrorism -- and
has made important contributions to the international counterterrorism
efforts." America should
respect Pakistan’s sovereignty the Chinese said.
As U.S.-Pakistani relations continued to curdle, the Chinese and
Pakistanis only tightened their embrace. .Pakistani Prime Minister Yousuf Raza
Gilani, on an official visit to China told
Chinese state radio, "We appreciate that in all difficult
circumstances China stood with Pakistan -- therefore we call China a true
friend and a time-tested and all-weather friend."
During that trip China’s Premier proved that friendship by announcing
that China would supply Pakistan with 50 JF-17 fighter jets equipped
with sophisticated avionics, the planes to be paid for by China.
Pakistan’s nuclear program provoked a similar flurry. The
U.S. very upset by Pakistan’s clandestine
development of nuclear weapons, had been looking at Pakistan’s program with
a baleful eye. Not the Chinese, who raised hackles in Washington when they sold
the Pakistanis two new nuclear reactors, supposedly to be used only for
civilian purposes. The deal, the Chinese insisted, was peaceful. [The Pakistanis
are quick to point out that the U.S. has been much more willing to forgive India—America’s
ally--for also developing clandestine nukes.]
In fact, for years now, China has been the major supplier of
military hardware to Pakistan. The two countries also have arms manufacturing co
production deals, and carryout joint
military exercises.
But military links are just for starters. While the U.S. has
spent billions on military bases in the Persian Gulf, the Chinese have been funding
a sophisticated deepwater commercial port in Gwadar,
Pakistan near the Persian Gulf. Just as important, they’re also rehabilitating
a 1300 kilometer long highway to
connect that Gwadar to China through Pakistan. You may never have heard of
Gwadar, but you will in the future. “Come back in a decade and this place will
look like Dubai,” a developer recently said.”
Trade between China and Pakistan has soared from $2 billion in 2002 to $7
billion in 2009. After a flurry
of new agreements, they are hoping to hit $18 billion by 2015. Those agreements
target everything from agriculture to heavy machinery, to space and upper
atmosphere research, alternative energy projects, power plants, and urban
security.
The Chinese are also aiming to increase investment in Pakistan from the
present $2 billion a year, to more than $3bn a year by 2012. That’s double the
annual $1.5bn in economic assistance from the United States that supposedly has
kept the Pakistani military in line all these years. 
Indeed, since 9/11 2001, the United States has provided Pakistan with
some $20 billion in aid, mostly military--in effect pay-offs for Pakistan’s
cooperation in fighting terrorism. But that aid —more like mercenary payments—has
done little to prevent the disastrous decline in relationship between the two
countries.
The basic reason is simple:
China and Pakistan have more interests in common than do America and
Pakistan. Looking to the future, powerful elements in Pakistan’s military have
long viewed America’s enemies in Afghanistan, the Taliban, as valuable allies
against India when America inevitably pulls out of Afghanistan. China, like
Pakistan, also regards India as a regional rival to be harassed and thwarted.
By working together China and Pakistan will be able to challenge not
just India, but also the United States and with its claims to hegemony in the
area—particularly since President Obama’s recent announcement that 2500 U.S.
marines would be stationed in Australia as part of America’s determination to increase
its presence in the Pacific.
China’s swollen coffers now also enable it to use foreign aid in the
way that America did in Washington’s plusher days. After the disastrous
floods in Pakistan last summer, for instance, China announced its biggest-ever
humanitarian aid program including $250 million in donations. It also included
a $400 million loan to help Pakistan tackle the financial impact of the
flooding, and a cash grant of $10m towards a fund to compensate people rendered
homeless.
--As part of this
new “hearts-and-minds” policy the Chinese offered 500 university scholarships
over the next three years for Pakistani students, with programs focusing on
technological areas of expertise not taught in Pakistan. The two countries will
also exchange high-school students, young entrepreneurs, and voluntary social
workers. Meanwhile, Chinese surgeons
are being dispatched to Pakistan to perform cataract operations on 1,000 blind
patients.
Such efforts are obviously paying off. It turns out the
Pakistanis are now also proselytizing for the Chinese.According to the New York Times earlier this year, “At a key meeting on April 16 in the Afghan capital, Kabul, top Pakistani officials suggested to Afghan leaders that they, too, needed to look to China, a power on the rise, rather than tie themselves closely with the United States, according to Afghan officials.
“You couldn’t tell exactly what they meant, whether China could possibly be an alternative to the United States, but they were saying it could help both countries,” an Afghan official said afterward.”
And all that was before this last catastrophic weekend.
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